Probability and the Sell Test
December 20, 2004
Today a unanimous three-judge panel of the Eight Circuit handed down an interesting (though short) opinion in United States v. Ghane, No. 04-1769 (8th Cir., Dec. 20, 2004). Applying the Sell test, the panel held that the state may not involuntarily medicate a defendant where there is only a 10% chance that medicating him will render him competent to stand trial. That is, a 10% chance of success is not "substantially likely to render the defendant competent to stand trial."
In Sell v. United States, 539 U.S. 166 (2003), the Court held that a defendant who is not compentent to stand trial can be involuntarily medicated if four factors are met.
First, a court must find that important governmental interests are at stake. *** Second, the court must conclude that involuntary medication will significantly further those concomitant state interests. It must find that administration of the drugs is substantially likely to render the defendant competent to stand trial. *** Third, the court must conclude that involuntary medication is necessary to further those interests. *** Fourth, the court must conclude that administration of the drugs is medically appropriate, i.e., in the patient’s best medical interest in light of his medical condition.
Id. at 180-182. Here, the court said that involuntarily medicating Ghane failed the second ("substantially likely") prong of the Sell test. Ghane, at *4 ("A five to ten percent chance of restored competence cannot be considered substantially likely under any circumstances.")