"I'm Sure, But Not $500-Sure"
July 11, 2006
One expression I often use, when asked whether I'm sure about something, is this: "Yeah, I'm sure. I'm sure enough that I'd bet $100, but not a $1,000." When I use this expression, the listener is familiar enough with me to know that $100 is not something I would risk lightly.
What brought this to mind was an exchange between law professors Orin Kerr and David Moran - both Fourth Amendment experts in their own right. Disagreeing over the application of a legal principle, Professor Moran made Kerr an offer: "Let's wager $500." Professor Kerr turned him down.
Which has me wondering.... Perhaps Professor Kerr is only $100 sure? Personally, I wouldn't take either side of the bet, though I would accept Moran's position with much lower stakes - perhaps a drink. Anyhow, be sure to check out the interesting and insighful exchange.