Will the New York Times Have a Going Out of Business Sale?
Hedge Fund Managers on the Market

Economists and Chickenhawks

This is sobering.

What's interesting is that "experts" in the United States keep saying, "That won't happen here."  When you ask them, "Why not?" how many have a good answer?  Even with all the benefits of hindsight, today's economists don't even know what caused the Great Depression.  So how much credibility do their statements that Great Depression 2.0 won't happen have?

Is there a betting market for this?  There should be?  I've long believed that, in a perfect world, experts who tell others how to spend their money would be forced to take identical market positions.  Some would say, "But that would chill speech!"  But are we really facing such a scarcity of opinions that we'd not want people to show that their belief in something involves more than pen on paper? 

Experts keep saying that a second Great Depression is an "extremely low probability event."  What does that mean?  If by, "extremely low probability," they mean less than 1%; then we should set up a betting market.  I'd gladly bet $1,000 to their $25,000.

How many experts do you think would take that bet?  If they are so confident in their predictions, why wouldn't they?  It sounds like easy money to me.

Most financial experts are like chickenhawks.  Yes, betting on the market/going to war is a great idea!  So long as someone else is doing it.